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A new model estimates odds of intelligent life across universes
The Drake Equation, a mathematical formula for the probability of finding life or advanced civilisations in the Universe, as revised by two University of Rochester researchers in 2016. University of Rochester
A new model estimates odds of intelligent life across universes
by Sophie Jenkins
London, UK (SPX) Nov 13, 2024

A fresh theoretical model developed by astrophysicists at Durham University offers a method to assess the likelihood of intelligent life appearing in our Universe, as well as in possible alternate universes. This concept builds on the legacy of the famous Drake Equation, devised in the 1960s by Dr. Frank Drake to estimate the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations within the Milky Way.

The recent model diverges by concentrating on how the expansion of the Universe and star formation rates affect the emergence of life. The expansion is influenced by dark energy, an enigmatic force accounting for more than two-thirds of the Universe's makeup.

Examining the conditions for life
The model operates under the premise that stars are essential for life to exist as understood. Therefore, it estimates the probability of intelligent life arising based on the density of dark energy and the fraction of ordinary matter converted into stars over the Universe's history.

One significant finding of this study is that typical observers in other universes would expect to encounter a greater density of dark energy than what exists in our own Universe. This suggests our Universe, with its unique balance of dark energy, might be less typical when compared to other potential universes.

Predictive outcomes indicate that the most efficient star-forming universe would convert about 27 percent of its ordinary matter into stars, compared to our Universe's 23 percent. This implies that our Universe does not possess the optimal dark energy density for fostering life, according to the model.

Dark energy's complex role
Dr. Daniele Sorini, from Durham University's Institute for Computational Cosmology, noted: "Understanding dark energy and the impact on our Universe is one of the biggest challenges in cosmology and fundamental physics. The parameters that govern our Universe, including the density of dark energy, could explain our own existence. Surprisingly, though, we found that even a significantly higher dark energy density would still be compatible with life, suggesting we may not live in the most likely of universes."

The research presents potential insights into how different dark energy densities influence the formation of stars and planets, as well as the stability necessary for life to evolve over billions of years.

Prof. Lucas Lombriser from the Universite de Geneve, who co-authored the study, emphasized the excitement of applying this model to various hypothetical universes to gain new perspectives on long-standing questions about our own.

Connecting to the Drake Equation
The original Drake Equation served as a framework for estimating the number of potentially detectable civilizations, incorporating factors like the rate of star formation and the fraction of stars hosting planets. This newer model similarly examines star formation but links it to universal characteristics like dark energy density.

Research Report:The impact of the cosmological constant on past and future star formation

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